Sunday, 15 March 2009

Obvious cock up


I mentioned yesterday in my opening post that I think you really have to work at learning to trade 24x7, obviously I did not mean sitting in front of your pc all day every day!

What I meant is that for me and I am sure others who have went through or are going through the learning curve of trading is that it really consumes your life, for example yesterday when sat down for dinner with my fiance after losing my bank, Evonne was trying to talk to me about arranging this car and that car and the colour of her bridesmaid dress for our wedding, but all she got was a blank expression from me......all i could think about was what I done wrong!

Same applied when I was out in my taxi last night, normally I am sociable and chatty with my passengers, but lets just say I did not get much tips last night as my mind was consumed about thoughts on trading and where I went wrong, anyway it was saturday night most of them would not remember anyway.

Then the lightbulb moment arrived as they so often do and the mistake I made was glaringly obvious, as most of them are! If you look at my rough sketch taken from my tired brain this morning you see that I was trading the favourite Black Beauty 16.55 newcastle.

The betfair price graph was showing a strong consistent steamer and in the blink of an eye I placed my back bet, as the horse was steaming in all day, it was a sure fire thing that it would continue coming in in the few minutes up to the race going off.

How wrong was I? no sooner had I placed my back bet and the priced drifted out almost violently from about 3.0 right up to 5 in a matter of about 30 seconds, now I was in a losing position of about £19.00 even when I greened up, Or red up! so no matter who won the race I was losing £19.00 of my hard earned bank, instinct and past experience told me that I should take this loss and move on as 9 times out of ten it will go in running and the price will not come back in to the bottom level unless the horse is running really well, but I let my emotions get the better of me and lost my abilty to get out of the trade....low and behold it lost and the price drifted out in running losing my entire back bet and bank!



After it happened I looked at the racing post website for other clues, and had I done this before placing my intitial trade I would probably not have made the trade as only one tipster was backing it, the second favourite had 7 tipsters backing it, so it was an obvious drifter, but the betfair price graph told a different story
.
Also looking at the ladder there was no money in the lay columm above the £800 odd pounds that was sitting there, it was in black and white that it was going to drift, but inexperience and enthusiasm wiped out my discipline for a split second.

I need to be more cautious when placing trades and scratch them much faster, I still dont understand why it steamed in all day right up to the race though?

I hope you can make out the sketch I am not the best at freehand, I wish there was a way to look at befair price graphs and previous races.

I am going to try and video my trading sessions from now on so I will try and post videos up on the blog of me making mistakes like this and hopefully one day getting it right!

2 comments:

  1. Good luck on the blog mate, videoing your trading is definitely a good move. How our minds perceive things under pressure can sometimes be completely different to the reality. Many traders use Camtasia, including myself.

    http://www.techsmith.com/camtasia.asp

    In regards to your Black Beauty trade, I would always look for as much information as possible before entering a trade. If I see a reason that the price might not move in the direction I predict, I do nothing, and if I happen to be in the market I always move into 'protect my bank mode' and scratch asap. I would say knowing when to exit a trade, whether in profit or loss, is one of the most important skills needed to be successful. You can probably see why going in-running on prerace trading is a definite no-no, as it is quite simply gambling with an odds on chance. Hope this helps.

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  2. Hi Afro! Thanks for my first and encouraging comment! today I am going to try and work with stop losses and adopt your attitude of only trading a horse if I am certain it is going to move in my direction and I am also going to try working with a stop loss until I can control my emotions a bit better! like you say going in running is just a gamble and i am so aware of that but something inside me still prevents me from scratching quickly enough! the differecne between and good trader and a bad one I think!

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