I have just got caught out (carried away whilst trading and a race started while i had an open position) needless to say I had an open back bet with about £27 on it - and the race was a 5f sprint, I watched in horror as the horse lost the race wiping out my bank - Its done my confidence right in as you can see from the last 2 days trading P and L I was starting to get somewhere - I will not be trading the rest of the day now because of this and probably not tommorrow - I never had the race clock up and was not paying attention to the start time.
DAMM DAMM DAMM CANT BELIEVE I WAS SO STUPID - dont make the same mistake i did
Its been a while since I posted a P an L shot - but over the last 2 days I seemed to have made great progress only using £2 stakes, its not a greaty amount to win but I think it shows that using that charts more seems to prove that it gets a bit easier to spot trends and get in and out of the market at the right time!
I have been using the new charting candle sticks for a few days now and its certainly helped with my ability to spot better entry and exit points, but even more so thanks to Mark who sent me a message a couple of weeks back I have been combining this with analyisis of the betfair chart and been looking at support and resistance levels in the chart in the 10 mins up to the race and I have been getting better and better at getting in and out at the right times, I feel this is a major milestone and a definate lightbulb moment, in fact the biggest breakthrough I have had in a while and I cannot believe I had missed this part of the jogsaw for so long, I had no idea just how much information was in the betfair graphs and in all honesty was not using them at all, just try to follow the money!
It seems that the prices and trends are getting more predictable for me as a novice and for the first time I dont feel like a small fish in shark infested waters and I am able to feel my way around a lot more.
if anyone reading who had been through this could perhaps tell me that I am hitting on something?? even if not, its done wonders for my confidence, when you have half an idea whats going on I now find that scracthing trades is becoming more natural!
So I am going to play around with £2 stakes and try to get my strike rate up and start making small consistent wins!
Been a wee while since I updated the blog and thought I would quickly write up my progress over the last week.
I have been using a new charting setup with the candle sticks the last few days in the advanced charting grahps and I have been watching the way the markets behave instead of trying to trade them, but the odd time I have been trading using just £2 stakes.
Someone said on my blog I should be having fun trying to work out what the markets are doing, and it was a great piece of advice I have actually been having fun trying to work out what a particular market/horse will do and the great thing is its been stress free and there are patterns that the markets follow and I am beggining to get pretty good at noticing them.
So if like me you are a novice and have been trading using real money, stop using money for a while and try and work out whats going on and you will actually notice more, as you are not getting frustrated about losing money and for me I was able to concentrate a whole lot more on what was going on and what my game plan should be when I start using money again, there is no real subsitute to using money, and you will also learn a hell of a lot putting money in the market but occasionally taking a step back may help you like it has me.
I also just read a great post from adam heathcote about getting in the zone before you trade, I am not a profitable trader yet, but I can relate to what adam says in the post word for word, I reccomend you have read at it
Enjoyed my day off relaxing yesterday as I see many others out there in traderland did, apart from peter webb who had what sounds like a horrible accident, get well soon! but peters comments about seeing good things even in the bad times ring true! look at his P and L shot for the aus races!!
Anyway, asides being very tired as I had about 3 hours sleep last night i am finding betfair very slow today and very nervous about trading, so I am going to sit it out again today and get back to my bed for some shut eye before a 12 hour shift toninght.
Hope eveyone else is getting on better, perhaps is just my brain!
I have the utmost optimism most of the time, and I always see the bright side of life, especially when it comes to trading, but since starting the blog it went on a short uphill trend then bang, I am back to losing - for the first time in the last 5 months since I began my trading journey I feel like throwing in the towel, maybe just maybe I am not cut out for this, my bank of £50 is now halved, its only £25, but its not the money that matters its the pyhscoligical effect its having on me and my body I can actually today feel my blood racing and my heart pounding! so I think its best to have a rethink about my future as a trader before it gives me a heart attack, no amount of money is worth a life.
I just cant seem to figure out the way the markets moves, one minute I think I have it sussed and can guess which way a market is going to go and sometimes I get it right, but of late its been more wrong and even though I can cut the trades out quicker a lot of small losses hits the bank, the opposite of lots of little winds which is what I have been striving for.
I have no idea if 5 months is enough time or I should be trying for longer, I know everyone is different but the frustration is killing me, normally I can master things quite quickly and pick things up as I go along, but the horse racing markets are a complex beast which just might be beating me! perhaps some time just watching the markets for a couple days instead, who knows anyway time for a cuppa!
Ive been reading up alot and watching a lot of videos again and before trading today I was under the assumption that I would be able to trade a bit better as after watching many trading videos and reading other bits of advice about following trends and waiting for breakouts I have already lost £7 in three races today so far!! I was full of confidence today before trading, now I am really hacked off!
Looking at the at graphs from the 3 horses there was a definate trend on them, I then susses out the upper resistance and lower resistance levels and the upper ones were broke which upon reading and watching other vidoes/advice out there you would think they would continue to drift, how wrong! they all came back in with a vengeance and actually broke the lower price resistance and kept shortening, I dont know if its the odds ranges I am trading, or becauase its a monday! dont go thinking you have it all sussed! because you get proved wrong again and again! now back to trying to trade again!
I just wished to say thank you very much for the comment you left! as you stated I will not be publishing it and will go through it just now and start watching the relavant markets! well done on the new job as well! id love to get out of the taxi business! time will tell! I would have emailed you, but there is no retrun address on the blog postings as you can imagine!
Well I must say today I am cheesed off, normally I am upbeat and positive even when I am losing, since starting this blog using £50 starting bank I am now at £35 which means quite a loss over the 2.5 weeks ago I started this.
My mind is a muddle - I find at times there is too much information out there to help you?? I know that sounds strange, but if you watch too many videos and read too many articles it seems to confuse me, dont know about anyone else, I know there are no that many blog readers on my blog just now! I cant seem to find a groove to sit in or get my own style.
One good thing about the blog though is that since starting it it has definetely helped with my discipline I have not let a single bet go in running, which was my major downfall, and I can now scratch trades a lot quicker so its progress but not money making progress, what I now need to do is stop losing money, and at some time making money will follow????
Just now I trade using pure price action, ie folllowing (or trying to follow) the big price moves, but I either get it wrong or get in too late and miss it, and today seemed particularly hard with movements as there did not seem to be any great ones and the liquidity was low in some races towards the end of the day, in the past ive tried rading form etc and try to figure out which way a horse will go, but that lost me money as well, ive tried working with stop losses but thats not working as the prices are too jumpy and just take my stop loss anyway before going in the direction I thought it would go and I see the profit I was going to make dissapear in front of my eyes!
I feel like hitting my head off a wall but my entusiasm to learn and crack this never seems to fade, its becoming like a drug.
I guess i just need to learn to read the markets better and use betangel a bit more proficiently, one minute I think im making progress and then the next it goes to pot!!!
If you could hear me scream your ears would be sore!.
Perhaps my downfall is that I only use the ladder for trading? maybe I should be scalping more, but I find the ladder interface easy to use and understand and the multi ladder I use when there us no clear favourite, perhaps I need to start looking more at scalping or bookmaking? or do I should I become good at swing trading first!!
My Name is Paul from Glasgow, I am like many others out there starting to write a blog which I hope to add to daily which will document my time learning to to trade the win horse racing markets on betfair